Environment
Fasi Pe Sila Tuku ki Manono (When the Mast Snaps, head for Manono)
Over 180 countries finally reached agreement on a framework that would enable them to ratify the Kyoto Protocol in Bonn, Germany recently. The resumed session of the Sixth Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Climate Change (COP6) was hailed a success - a triumph for multilateralism and the United Nations system. It was a remarkable result, especially since predictions were that the negotiations would collapse following the declaration by President Bush that the Protocol was "fatally flawed".
In my July column, I expressed hope that the climate change talks in Bonn would improve the situation for the region, the future of our planet¹s environment and our very lives. So after all the euphoria and back-slapping, let's return and ask: will it? When I ask myself this question I am reminded of an old Tongan saying ³fasi pe sila tuku ki Manono (when the mast snaps, head for the safety of Manono - an island where the vessel will be repaired). In relation to climate change, the mast has clearly snapped and a lot of work is needed to repair the damage.
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The very latest science tells us that the climate is changing as a result of human activity. In our region these changes include higher temperatures and more hot days, more intense (heavy) rainfall, and (over some areas) more intense winds and rain associated with tropical cyclones. Global warming is likely to lead to greater extremes of drying and heavy rainfall, and to increase the risk of droughts and floods that occur with El Niño events.
And if greenhouse gas emissions continue at current rates for the next 50 years, low-lying islands like Tuvalu are predicted to disappear beneath rising waters.
The boat is broken and being swamped. In Bonn, there was profound relief that after four years of negotiations, over 180 countries finally agreed to kick-start the Kyoto Protocol. Will this fix the boat? Not yet. Bonn was not about reaching land and equilibrium - the "Kyoto-Lite" agreement as it has been referred to, is expected to fall far short of the 60% needed to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations to below dangerous levels.
Bonn was about agreeing to steer the boat in the right direction. A long overdue result but one that is essential if the mast is to be repaired. The agreement also included money for a Special Climate Change Fund and a Fund for Least Developed Countries ‹ funds that will, to continue the metaphor, help us take on provisions en route to Manono.
The resources that have been committed will assist countries, including the Pacific islands, to respond to change that is already in the climate system. This will include adaptation, capacity building and the transfer of technology. An Adaptation Fund was also established but this will not come into effect until the Kyoto Protocol enters into force. By July 20 this year only 37 countries have ratified (including Vanuatu, the Marshall Islands, Palau, Cook Islands and Nauru). Many countries have pledged to do so by next year, 2002.
But without a Protocol that is operational, we can only say that we have pointed the boat towards Manono and can take on provisions but the boat is barely moving yet. And there also remains the question about the other major emitters. In Bonn, the United States, responsible for approximately 25% of global greenhouse gas emissions, declared that it still did not intend to ratify and continues to call for other major developing countries emitters to be involved. Even if we reach Manono, we cannot fix the mast and continue our journey of really living without a truly global effort. At present this effort is embodied in the Kyoto Protocol that reinforces the principle of the common but differentiated responsibilities of States - requiring developed countries to take the lead.
At the time this article is being written the Pacific Islands Forum is considering similar questions - how do we welcome progress that has been made and what still needs to be done to "fix the mast".
In my view, Pacific islands countries:
- Need to track the decisions carefully - "the devil is in the detail";
- Encourage all to ratify - we need to be sailing towards Manono in convoy;
- Ensure that the agreement now leads to real and measurable reductions,
however small, in greenhouse gases ‹ when we fix the mast we want it to
last;
- Engage the United States and other major emitters in a sensible dialogue
recognising that poorer countries are unlikely to be able to commit to
anything unless the richer countries can demonstrate it is possible.
In the meantime we should take every advantage of the resources being made available to assist vulnerable countries, such as our island homes, to respond to climate change. Hopefully, COP7 in Marrakech, Morocco, will bring about a truly global response that will take us from climate change to climate stability.
