Politics
So, Who's Going To Lead Papua New Guinea?
A coalition of parties likely
Papua New Guineans will know who their new prime minister is sometime this month. And while the election is yet to be completed in some parts of the country, political horse-trading has started with two parties already showing claims to be the major players in the election of a prime minister and the eventual formation of a new government.
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Progressive poll results have indicated that no single party is likely to collect the required majority of 55 to form a government on its own. A coalition is the only other option.
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But unlike in the past, it would be a coalition formed under the stringent parameters of the new Organic Law on the Integrity of Political Parties and Candidates (OLIPPC). It would be interesting to see how the Independents would influence the coalition formation under the new law.
As far as the parties are concerned, the biggest question is who is going to align with whom? From the statistics so far, the ruling People's Democratic Movement (PDM) and the National Alliance (NA) have been the most successful in terms of numbers. NA is leading with 14 members and PDM is second with 9.
One would assume that the two would team up to form a government, while the other parties and Independents would make up the opposition. This seems very unlikely. Both parties will never work together. Both are currently on the opposite sides of the House. PDM is in government while NA is in opposition.
The likely scenario would be that both parties would remain as they are and would work to attract enough support from the other parties like Pangu, People's Progress Party (PPP), Melanesian Alliance (MA), People's Action Party (PAP), the other smaller parties and the Independents to make up the number to form a government. Indications are that the NA is likely to team up with PPP, Melanesian Alliance, MA, PAP, some of the other smaller parties and some Independents.
Initially, Pangu was seen to be leaning towards the expected pact, but this seems unlikely with party leader, Chris Haiveta, publicly brushing aside media speculations that the party was courting them.
A strong possibility is that Pangu is likely to join PDM. They would be supported by the other smaller parties and other Independents. At least one independent and the leader of a smaller party have already publicly declared their allegiance to PDM, and more are expected to follow, especially from the Highlands provinces, the home of PDM founder, Paias Wingti.
If this were the case, the prime ministerial candidacy would be decided between the current PDM leader and prime minister Sir Mekere Morauta and Wingti.
Among the two, many are expecting Morauta to be the number one choice, that is if Wingti keeps to his public statement made earlier this year that he would take a back seat and allow Morauta to continue as prime minister. He selected Morauta as his successor when he lost in the 1997 elections. He is making a return to active politics after being in the shadows of the party in the last five years.
As unpredictable as he is, he might spring a surprise. He had engineered some surprises in his past political life, and there is no guarantee that the same would not happen again.
Haiveta, who would bring to the team the second highest number of members, would naturally be given the deputy prime minister's job. He cannot vie for the top job unless the coalition decides so. Although PDM is trailing NA in terms of numbers, PDM still has the edge with Wingti in the team. For him, anything is possible. His political prowess has earned him a reputation among commentators as the master tactician. He is a man who is not only wealthy and powerful, but is also someone who can cleverly calculate risks and turn them in his favour.
For NA, it might not be the same without someone like Wingti, but it already has sufficient numbers. With likely support from PPP, MA and PAP, the NA only needs the backing of a few others to make up the number.
Their choice for the top job will definitely be the "Father of the Nation" Sir Michael Somare, who has faced one of his strongest challenges ever since entering parliament in the 60s. A virtually unknown young man, Allan Bird, had given Somare a run for his money after succumbing in the final stages of counting in Somare's traditional stronghold in the contest for the East Sepik Regional seat.
After the declaration of his election victory, Somare reiterated his earlier interest in the top job. But he did not indicate his chances. There is another likely scenario. Independents could form a bloc and seek the endorsement of the Governor General to form a government. Out of the 2875 candidates who contested the polls, 1247 were Independents. So far, nine of them have won seats with more expected. There are some notable Independents, but whether they will form a bloc, is still a likely possibility.
