We Say - Part 2
We Say - Part 2
'Will the Solomon Islands become Oceania's first failed country? That is a distinct possibility and makes all the more possible the eventual secession of the Western Solomons to join with what will quite likely become part of the future independent state of Bougainville, now politically part of Papua New Guinea'
In the 1990s Australia's National Centre for Development Studies published a series of books dealing with the future of Pacific Islands countries. Now that they are advancing into the 21st century, a question that the inhabitants of some of the region's countries are quite likely to be asking themselves is: Does their country have a future, certainly in its present form? And is it a palatable prospect?
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Setting aside the climate change issue and the matter of whether or not Tuvalu will disappear under the waves (either it will or it won't), the outlook for some countries as independent states is not promising. Niue tops the list. This 257 square kilometres blob of flattish rock, east of Tonga, is one of the world's smallest self-governing states, although much bigger than 27 square kilometres Tuvalu.
Its problem is that about 17,000 Niueans live in New Zealand and very few indeed show any desire to return permanently to their homeland.
At home only about 1500 Niueans, and perhaps fewer, remain. Despite efforts by the government to entice people to stay or return, the number dwindles still.
There is speculation that Niue's population will drop to a level at which it can no longer function viably as a self-governing state. Some claim that this has already happened and that Niue's only hope is to be absorbed as part of New Zealand, which ran the place until 1974.
The Cook Islands, another former New Zealand territory, is on the same downward path. About 80,000 Cook Islanders live abroad. Since 1996 the number at home has dropped by about 8000 to around 13,400 permanent residents.
The attraction of free access to Australia and New Zealand, limited opportunities at home and disillusionment with years of fickle rule by mostly poor calibre and in some cases corrupt leaders, are some reasons that have driven Cook Islanders abroad.
The Cook Islands plight is not nearly as desperate as Niue's. Its economic prospects are far brighter, but how low can the country go in losing population without losing the essential dynamics necessary for good government and growth?
The news from the Solomon Islands, ruined by a war between the people of just two of its 800 islands, is gloomy enough to now provoke the question: could government, law and order and the economy descend to a point at which a benevolent neighbour, Australia, would need to move in to pick up the pieces?
Will the Solomon Islands become Oceania's first failed country? That is a distinct possibility and makes all the more possible the eventual secession of the Western Solomons to join with what will quite likely become part of the future independent state of Bougainville, now politically part of Papua New Guinea.
There is cause for alarm about Tonga's prospects. This small kingdom is heading for an economic disaster unless radical government and economic reforms, now resisted by the bulk of the country's feudally-minded establishment, are pressed through and made to work. A crumbling of the paltry national fortunes coupled with the possibility of social unrest, could bring into question the survival of a monarchial government that is heavily reliant on powerful customary influences as defence against the political forces that challenge it.
Can any of the leaders of the 21 square kilometres Nauru, independent since 1968, claim to be free of culpability for the insane squandering, waste and theft of now practically all its wealth? As of now, Nauru cannot claim to be a truly independent state, at least not one that can be taken seriously. It is financially dependent on Australia and likely to remain so.
What will happen to American Samoa, one of the region's last colonies, when its two tuna canneries eventually close? The outlook for this country and its people is gloomy; perhaps, its only hope in the long-term is to be absorbed by go-ahead neighbouring independent Samoa.
As for Papua New Guinea, there's cause for more pessimism there. And then there's Fiji. The score there is three coups since 1987. Despite the confident assertions about stability made by the present government, the currents swirling in Fiji are such that another military intervention, perhaps quite early next year, should not be ruled out.
