Politics
Crunch Time In The Solomons
Kemakeza faces big test in parliament
If Sir Allan Kemakeza is still prime minister by the middle of this month, then there's a strong possibility the man and his government could be in for the long-haul. After a break of about five months, Solomon Islands' parliament is reconvening in December for its annual budget session. This will be the only chance Kemakeza's critics will have to dispose him either through a vote-of-no-confidence, or by defeating his 2003 budget.
In the lead-up to the December session, the island capital, Honiara, was abuzz with rumours of a possible change in government; unpalatable news for a country that is smarting still from the effects of a debilitating ethnic war and is tiptoeing its way back at restoring investor confidence. Foreign exchange is what the tattered economy wants in large amounts to pull it out from the brink of bankruptcy and civil war.
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Getting rid of Kemakeza may be the wish of many key stakeholders in the Solomons, including those in the civil society. The feeling is that the former police officer is too timid and passive, and seems to continue to bend backwards to accommodate the demands and threats of the militants, some of whom are downright criminals.
His own admission that he paid himself S$600,000 in compensation while serving as minister responsible for compensation did not help either.
Kemakeza has had difficulties refuting opposition claims that he paid Malaita militants up to S$5 million in compensation even though he had stated that there would be no more payouts. He was also accused of advising militants not to surrender their weapons during a government-sponsored arms amnesty which ended in May.
But turning that wish into reality will be easier said than done. If Opposition leader Patterson Oti and his 17 odd opposition MPs are plotting a no-confidence vote against Kemakeza, getting the numbers is an uphill battle.
For one thing, the numbers are hopelessly stacked against them. By the last count, Kemakeza had 30 MPs on his side to Oti's 18. Secondly, Kemakeza is never a complacent politician. His years as a law enforcement officer must have taught him that. Knowing that his numbers can evaporate overnight before his very eyes, the man assisted by his advisers, has been burning the midnight oil to re-visit the numbers and seek solid support.
"For a motion of no-confidence to be passed, the opposition must have 25 votes," a senior aide, who wished not to be named, explained. "If it is a tie, that is 24 votes all, then the motion is defeated. We only need 24 MPs to survive. We have more than that," the aide pointed out.
An opposition 'insider' told Islands Business that the prime minister's adviser was speaking too soon. The source said over the past few months, the group has been working at weakening Kemakeza's numbers.
The insider declined to disclose details, saying negotiations were "delicate." But political analysts said a likely scenario was for the opposition to dangle carrots before Kemakeza's main coalition partner, the Association of Independent Members (AIM) headed by his deputy, Snyder Rini.
Rini is believed to have the numbers to make or break the government with up to 20 MPs supporting him.
A no-confidence motion is an option available to the opposition. There is also the alternative of AIM moving out of government before parliament convenes, and introducing a contingency warrant through a parliamentary motion "to enable the new government to frame a new budget," an analyst explained.
The prime minister's adviser believes the exercise is futile. Already worked up is a strategy to counter any opposition-sponsored no-confidence motion.
The adviser says all they need to tell MPs is that "the opposition is split and weak, which is the truth. Highlight the weaknesses of the opposition and always tell the truth. That way we are consistent."
Making the rounds in Honiara as possible contenders for the prime minister's job are Rini and opposition leader Oti. Other possibilities include current MPs Leslie Boseto, Fred Fono and outspoken opposition MP, Alfred Sasako.
Over the past few weeks, Kemakeza has been spending a lot of time consulting and listening to members of his government.
"Listen to their problems and help them where he can," said the prime minister's senior aide. "In many cases, it is a matter of listening and showing them respect and that you care about them and the country.
"It all boils down to human relationship and being humble. The PM is good at this."
Tied closely with any no-confidence motion will be the 2003 national budget. Finance secretary Lloyd Powell was busy finalising the package by the end of last month to respond to questions from Islands Business.
But for the 2003 budget, watch how Kemakeza will push for the development of the private sector and investment - his only hope of strengthening his position.
