Cover Story
2003 Challenges Ahead
When more than 1400 students graduated from the University of the South Pacific (USP) in December, Vice Chancellor Savenaca Siwatibau told them: “You will all be leaders, no matter where you will find your niche, to serve your country.”
Siwatibau, a Fijian economist and administrator, outspoken in deploring the deteriorating condition of governance in the Pacific Islands, used the graduation ceremony at the USP Laucala Bay campus in Suva to paint a depressing picture of the affairs of many of the region’s 22 mainly independent states and remaining French and American controlled territories.
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The economies of the 12 countries that own USP had on the whole not improved since the 2001 graduation day, he said. On-going weakness of the global economy wasn’t helping them.
“Low economic growth rates, except for Samoa, high unemployment, particularly among the young, rapidly rising public expenditures, low government revenue growth, physical and social infrastructure which are in dire need of repairs, weak external sectors, very weak fiscal positions and varying degrees of social difficulties have persisted during 2002. The prospects for the medium term did not look good.”
Siwatibau said that because of their “bleak” economic and social prospects the USP’s owners would brake financial backing for it. Their contribution to the university’s budget would be only 1.5 percent during the next three years, half the rate needed for USP to remain viable.
Siwatibau’s portrayal of the Pacific Islands conditions got grimmer. “You may think that we in the Pacific are so far removed, that the threat of terrorism need not concern the bulk of us who are not responsible for our national security. But I hope that you will go out and think about this issue more.
“The threat of terrorism is never far away. It could, for our region, be terrorism borne of increasing poverty, and of injustice, within our own countries.
“It could be terrorism borne of frustrations by those who feel increasingly left out of meaningful participation in, and of fair sharing of the benefits of our own countries’ development.”
The Pacific Islands need good leadership in every field, he told the graduates.
“Our modern societies are torn apart by ethnic hatred, intolerance, much misunderstanding and unfettered greed.”
A “revolution” in the region’s thinking was needed to produce people who abhorred hatred and greed and embraced compassion, sharing, justice, honesty, inclusiveness and integrity.
“We shall need social re-engineering,” Siwatibau said.
As they enter the third year of the 21st century, and mostly 20 to 30 years after independence from colonial rule, the situation in most of the Pacific islands states bears out Siwatibau’s unpalatable assessment.
Melanesia
The main worry lies in Melanesia—Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia and Fiji—which contains more than 6,000,000 of the region’s 7,000,000 people, nearly all the land, and measured in gold, copper, fish, forest, and agricultural land, nearly all the natural wealth.
Australia is talking about “failed states”, meaning the Solomon Islands, possibly Papua New Guinea, and also the once wealthy republic of Nauru.
In mid-December, the Australian foreign minister, Alexander Downer, did a hurried trip to the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu, and also to the steady and relatively prosperous Samoa, a Polynesian state, hoping to illustrate Australia’s alarm about the drift of events in some parts of the region as a sideshow to its preoccupation with its own security after the Bali bombings which killed more than 80 Australians.
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The situation in the Solomon Islands, the home of more than 400,000 people, is distinctly alarming two years after a peace treaty of sorts ended, officially, a nasty little civil war on the island of Guadalcanal, the location of Honiara, the capital. The Guadalcanese tried to eject thousands of settlers from neighbouring Malaita Island. The war wrecked the narrow economy and ruined a government already made poor by corruption, waste and incompetence.
Just before Downer’s arrival, shootings in Honiara, including shots fired at the official residence of Prime Minister Sir Allan Kemakeza, and several killings, and then threats, prompted the December 16 evacuation of two foreign advisers.
Financial secretary Lloyd Powell and adviser Rob Solomon, and the wife and child of foreign minister, Laurie Chan left hurriedly for Australia on a chartered plane.
Kemakeza, his government under assault in the way of an impending parliamentary no confidence vote, has asked for a United Nations peacekeeping force to bring stability to the country, Islands Business learnt.
While beyond Guadalcanal the rest of the Solomon Islands are relatively calm and resentful of the trouble between the two combatant islands, Guadalcanal and Honiara are really under the domination of opposed Guadalcanal and Malaita militant gunmen masquerading as “freedom” fighters, but really bent on extortion and banditry.
In Papua New Guinea, despite claims by the new government of veteran politician, Sir Michael Somare, the country’s first prime minister, that he was in effective control, there is mounting disillusionment about the country’s leadership.
Government finances and the economy are in a parlous state and some parts of the country lie in virtual anarchy, with some government services including education and health, functioning barely or not at all.
Leading businessmen told Islands Business they do not expect the Somare government, formed after the former government of Sir Mekere Morauta was toppled in mid 2002, to survive a no confidence vote they said is sure to be mounted after it has ruled for 18 months. The Papua New Guinea constitution blocks any such motion earlier than this. Islands Business was told Somare relies for support mainly on politicians responsible for the resource-enriched country’s floundering fortunes.
The second biggest Pacific Islands nation by population, Fiji, set back by two coups in 1987, one in 2000, and plagued by serious political, economic and social difficulties, is another Melanesian trouble spot. 2003 could be a make or break year for it. (see story).
Vanuatu, where economic and social progress since independence in 1980 has been negligible, was slightly upset last June when elements of the police force and a paramilitary anti-riot force mutinied against the appointment of a new police commander. The mutineers, including a former riot unit commander and senior police officers, got suspended two-year jail terms. The upset was uncomfortable but not that deep. More disconcerting was the unilateral decision in November by the Vanuatu president, Father John Bani, to pardon former prime minister Barak Sope, apparently a friend of his, after only three months of a three-year jail term for fraud committed while Sope was in office. It made people wonder about Vanuatu’s quality of justice.
After more than a dozen years of relative peace and growing prosperity, New Caledonia is again experiencing political stress between pro-independent indigenous Kanaks and anti-independence mainly white French long-time settlers (see story). France’s colonial minister, visiting Noumea in mid-December, said France was committed to agreements for the evolution of self-government for the territory. These include an opportunity for the Kanaks to eventually control a fully independent country.
Micronesia
Micronesia (Palau, Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Guam, Kiribati, Northern Marianas) is a collection of mostly small, poor atolls, all experiencing over-population and health difficulties and the aggravation of social decay caused by the evaporation of old cultures.
At the end of 2002, the Federated States of Micronesia and Marshall Islands got a 20-year reprieve from collapse with the extension of a deal with the United States (see story). But they will have to work hard to secure lasting salvation. Marshall Islands president, Kessai Note is making serious attacks on the country’s difficulties, the product of years of poor governance. But some obstacles may be too great to overcome.
Kiribati will quite likely have a change of government in February (see Kiribati election report) and Nauru is expected to hold an election in February or March. But the depths of Nauru’s financial losses, costing more than A$2000 million, caused largely by incredible waste and corruption, are so profound that the future of this small state is in serious question.
Palau, benefitting from serious foreign investment in tourism, is doing well economically. It has seven years to go before the end of a 15-year deal with the United States.
This is bringing it about US$700 million in return for a 50-year military grip by the United States. But more Palauans are voicing resentment about the grip on their country by foreign mostly Chinese businessmen.
In December, Guam and the Northern Marianas were badly damaged by a hurricane, with winds of more than 300 kph. The United States gave the territories disaster area status. The hurricane will impact badly on Asian, mainly Japanese tourist traffic, they are heavily dependent on.
Guam is gaining from being rebuilt as a military base from which the United States can attack China and other potential Asian enemies. The Northern Marianas is grappling with the decline of its Asian sweatshop labour garment factories, being closed down under the United States labour laws.
Elections for the Federated States of Micronesian Congress are due in March, but no result is likely to improve the country’s economic difficulties.
Citizens continue to migrate to other United States Pacific territories and the United States mainland in large numbers as economic refugees, as the compact deal allows them to do.
Polynesia
Polynesia (Tonga, Samoa, American Samoa, Niue, Tuvalu, Cook Islands and Wallis and Futuna) has its own peculiarities.
Samoa is continuing as the rock steady, progressive, reasonably prosperous country in the region. The widely admired prime minister, Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi, is firmly in control. His main complaint is lack of effective political opposition.
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American Samoans remain content to remain placidly dependent on United States subsidies of about US$60 million a year, plus food stamps and jobs and money stemming from two Pago Pago fish canneries. One day the canneries may close. The locals don’t want to think about that.
In French Polynesia, President Gaston Flosse seems ready and able to continue in power for ever (see story).
Wallis and Futuna, the small French territory north of Fiji, has 15,000 people at home entirely dependent on French aid, which is being increased, and 20,000 people living in New Caledonia, where they are regarded with increasing resentment by indigenous Kanaks. The territory wants New Caledonia to continue to accept the presence of the community there as it achieves greater autonomy.
After several years of serious economic and population decline, Niue got a lifesaver in November when Polynesian Airlines began operating a twice-weekly service through it to New Zealand.
This should revive Niue’s defunct tourism industry. But its population is still very low and Niue continues to ponder its political future, including a possible, but unlikely resumption of its status as a dependency of New Zealand.
Tuvalu is being forced to become cautious (see Tuvalu report). In 2002, the United Nations reported that Tokelau, with a population about 2000, was perfectly content to maintain its political ties to New Zealand.
After making a painful recovery from its 1990s economic collapse, the Cook Islands is said by critics to be reverting to former bad ways; too many relatives hired for the civil service, less careful financial management; and resistance from most of the 25 members of parliament to political reforms that would cut their numbers and size of government. Migration to Australia and New Zealand continues to cause manpower difficulties.
In 2003, the Kingdom of Tonga will soldier on with its pro-democracy movement agitating for a fully democratic government, an idea the Royal Family doesn’t approve of. A fully elected Parliament is something that might appear towards the end of the present decade.
Tonga’s immediate worry is the extreme weakness of its economy and resistance from a deeply entrenched ruling establishment to a pressing need for serious economic reforms.
There is alarm in Tonga about the government’s decision to open flights last November to New Zealand, Australia and Hawaii with a Boeing 757 chartered from an Asian airline for five years.
This is after a T$11 million loss for the previous two years with a smaller jet. If the bigger jet doesn’t work, any entailing loss would be a national financial disaster.
