Disaster
French Polynesia Goes Into Preparation Mode
Weather officials predict cyclone and storms
French meteorological officials are predicting an 80% risk of a cyclone and a 100% risk of a tropical storm for French Polynesia during the current El Nino period through to April. The risk of a cyclone is seen as particularly high from January through March, although the El Nino phenomenon is not expected to be as strong a threat as it was in 1997-1998, the officials said.
As a result, officials at all levels - French State, Territorial Government and individual communes - have made preparations for whatever lies ahead. This includes alerting officials and residents of small villages and towns of precautions and actions to take should a tropical depression or cyclone arrives.
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Météo France officials made their forecasts based on an analysis of El Nino phenomenon, which includes the Pacific Ocean’s surface waters heating up abnormally along the equator and off the coast of Ecuador from Peru to Chile.
Already the El Nino period which began in November produced exceptionally dry weather, major bush fires and water shortages for large parts of the islands of Tahiti and Moorea in the Windward Islands and the popular tourist destination of Bora Bora in the Leeward Islands. That dry weather was followed by a prolonged rainy period in early December as French Polynesia felt the effects of a tropical depression off the Cook Islands.
The dry weather followed an unusually dry October when French Polynesia’s capital of Papeete received only four millimetres of rain, a record dryness since 1976 when only 38 millimetres of rain fell. But while weather officials were describing the dryness as “remarkable”, they were describing the anticipated rainfall over the next three months (December-February) as “not catastrophic”.
To the north, the Marquesas Islands were expecting to have normal if not slightly above normal rainfall for the coming three months. The vast Tuamotu Archipelago that runs the width of French Polynesia was expected to have normal rainfall. The Austral Islands in the southwestern part of French Polynesia were expecting normal or slightly less than normal rainfall through February.
But the problem, according to the weather officials, is the volume and regularity of rain. Much of the ground was too dry to absorb a heavy rainfall, Victoire Laurent, head of Météo France’s climate and studies division, said in mid-November.
During the first 10 months of 2002, only two of Météo France’s information-gathering stations reported above normal rainfall. They were Takaroa, a north Tuamotu atoll, and Rapa, 1074 kilometres (666 miles) southeast of Tahiti in the Austral Islands. Takaroa’s rainfall was 7% above normal and Rapa’s was 9%.
By contrast, Bora Bora had 43% less than normal rainfall and Tahiti’s airport had 42% less. “We are actually in a weak level El Nino period,” Daniel Nouveau, head of Météo France’s communications division, said in late October. “And in view of the upcoming warm season we are heading towards a moderate level El Nino phenomenon.”
But of the five cases of moderate level El Ninos in the Pacific between 1951 and 2002, four of them produced cyclones, Météo France said. Those periods were February and March 1970; early 1988; and December 1991. The weather officials are describing the current moderate El Nino as identical to conditions that existed in 1991.
However, French Polynesia experienced its worst El Nino period from December 1982 through May 1983 when six cyclones struck various parts of the territory at the rate of one a month, causing more than 12 billion French Pacific francs (US$100m at current exchange rates) damage. The Météo France forecasts prompted Colonel Bauthéau, the head of French Polynesia’s Civil Protection, to comment: “For the next warm season from 2002-2003, there’s a very real cyclonic risk in French Polynesia.” He advised people to begin trimming trees, clear water evacuation passages and repair roofs.
And Météo France said in late October that the ocean waters surrounding French Polynesia risked becoming warmer than normal during the next six months, or until April. During a moderate El Nino period there is an 80% chance of a cyclone and a 100% chance of a strong tropical depression, according to the interregional headquarters of the French national meteorological service. “We will have a maximum of cyclonic risk activities during the first three months of 2003,” Nouveau said. However, the Météo France officials agreed that the El Nino phenomenon for 2002-2003 would be weaker than what French Polynesia experienced in 1997-1998.
