Politics
What The Region Can Expect In 2004
Simmering Melanesia, Tonga to hold centre stage
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The simmering cauldrons of Melanesia will continue to hold centre stage in the Pacific Islands region this year. In Tonga, the mounting stress between the entrenched conservative monarchy and the challenging democracy movement will be the focus of attention in Polynesia. In Melanesia, the Solomon Islands is no longer on the boil. Fiji, three-and-a-half years past its last coup, is still labouring in the woods of communal tension despite confident talks of growth. Papua New Guinea's reluctant decision to accept an infusion of direct Australian influence into its public service underlines the loss of grip the country's own leaders have on their national affairs. In Micronesia, the Marshall Islands and Federated States of Micronesia are settling down to another 20 years of suzerainty under the United States in return for a conditional flow of cash meant to push them to as near a condition of economic independence as they are ever likely to achieve. Two of the Pacific microstates, Nauru and Niue, face another year of doubt about their continuing sustainability as supposedly independent states. Australia's foreign minister, Alexander Downer, wonders whether the near insolvent Nauruans might like to become Australian citizens as a solution for their self-inflicted problems. The present Nauru president, Rene Harris , says he doesn't think his people would since Nauru's independence would be affected. - ADVERTISEMENT -
As several of the Pacific's sovereign states move further into a time when their sovereignty is being brought into serious question, one of the smallest of all the Pacific's territories, Tokelau, a New Zealand territory of three small atolls inhabited by 1418 people, is nearing an agreement wit h New Zealand on moving towards self-government in association with New Zealand, a status the Cook Islands and Niue have. MELANESIA Solomon Islands
Papua New Guinea He failed with two attempts to execute that strategy as 2003 drew to a close. Somare claims that a three-year immunity would bring Papua New Guine a the stability needed to put its chaotic affairs and crumbling economy in order and keep them there.
His fiercest critic, the former prime minister Sir Mekere Morauta, his predecessor, the personality the investment community and aid donors regard as being the most credible candidate to succeed Somare, insists that Somare's only motive is to secure another 18 months of secured power. Somare's aides say that without the 18-month extension, it's possible to manipulate the constitutional cogs and wheels to hold on to government unti l about the middle of the year. As to who would succeed Somare, the most seasoned of local commentators said: "Whatever number comes out of the hat." In December, the first of 230 Australian police and about 60 civilian administrators arrived in Port Moresby to prop up and then repair Papua New Guinea's faltering law and government structures. As in the Solomon Islands, the Australian intervention is a bitter pill to swallow, even more so for Somare, who last September initially attacked the proposition for it as an assault on PNG's national sovereignty. Australia, whose A$400 million-a-year aid input is a brace for one-third of the PNG budget, wants to ensure that the country derives maximum benefit from it. PNG, on the other hand, can present numerous examples of foreign and local investment in such sectors as oil exploration, mining and fisheries as proo f of investment faith in it. President of the Port Moresby Chamber of Commerce, David Conn, greeted Australia's assistance with relief since "there is a growing perception tha t people do not need to be accountable for their actions and this is increasing the general lawlessness in the community." Conn said some PNG businessmen were so disillusioned with the country that they had checked out the neighbouring Solomon Islands. Already some are commenting that they would rather direct their investment s there. The threat of a significant disinvestment by existing investors out of PNG into friendlier social and business climates is an issue we should not underestimate.20 "Those who beat their breasts and say let them go, really do not understand the issues and the hardships of what a shrinking economy will impose on the increasing percentage of our own people who are already living on the margin." Fiji
But the government must contend with several awkward difficulties. One is the military commander, Commodore Frank Bainimarama, who after the 2000 upset formed a brief military government and negotiated the release of the ousted Fiji Labour Party government of Mahendra Chaudhry, who were held hostage in parliament. Bainimarama then transferred power to a temporary civilian regime with Qarase as prime minister, appointed by senior Fijian chiefs. Bainimarama, who enjoys wide public support, in December, again made it known that his wasn't ready to leave the military when his five-year appointment expires in March. He isn't ready to go, he says, until everyone responsible for the coup is rounded up, tried, convicted, and jailed and until other matters, such as a defence review, are completed. Through a military spokesperson, Bainimarama, whose relations with Qarase are hardly comfortable; let it be known that "tainted politicians" were lobbying for his removal for the protection of coup conspirators who had so far escaped justice. Since the Fiji constitution requires the country's president to appoint an army commander, acting on the advice of the minister responsible (presently the home affairs), Bainimarama couldn't carry on as army chief without the government's blessing, without breaching the constitution he's sworn to defend. The government's cautious stand was that the commander position would go to the best available candidate; some believe that could be an Australian army man to match the Australian Federal police officer, who became police commissioner last July. But while the police force welcomed that appointment, the army would be unlikely to give a similarly warm reception to an Australian commander. Linked to the stress with the army are the impending trials of the Fiji vic e president, two of Qarase's cabinet ministers and the deputy parliamentary speaker, on 2000 coup-related charges and the possibility of charges being brought against other high-profile figures. The trials and any possible convictions are bound to arouse unrest in extremist nationalist circles that the security of Qarase's coalition government is reliant on. Another problem for the Qarase government is the Fiji Labour party and its leader, Mahendra Chaudhry. About May, the Supreme Court is expected to rule on whether the Labour Party should have 17 places in Qarase's cabinet, as claimed by Chaudhry, or the 14 offered by Qarase after a court ruling that upheld Labour's claim that it was constitutionally entitled to have a chunk of cabinet jobs in proportion to its parliamentary numbers. Whether 14 or 17, Chaudhry will have to decide to accept the lowly minister for garden gnome-type jobs offered by Qarase, thus burdening Fiji with an unwieldy cabinet of around 35 ministers out of a chamber of 71 MPs, or reject them. Qarase, who doesn't want Labour and especially Chaudhry in his cabinet, say s that rejection will amount to Labour's retreat to the opposition benches, with no further legal recourse. That scenario would leave his nationalist-minded government in power able to validly declare to be an utterly kosher government constitutionally, a point that aid donors presently dispute. One stress point for Fiji is the impending collapse of its 120-year-old insolvent sugar industry, on which nearly one-third of the population is still reliant on for a livelihood. Qarase, Chaudhry and some sectors of the industry are fighting over how it should be saved, if it can be. Suppliers of the finance and technical aid vital to a rescue are becoming impatient about the launching of a rescue that should have begun in April, 2003. Vanuatu In November, Prime Minister Edward Natapei, leader of the Vanu'aku Party (VP), suddenly broke with his coalition party and teamed up with the former opposition party, the National United Party (NUP), whose leader, Ham Lini, took over as deputy prime minister. Serge Vohor, who was dumped as deputy prime minister, became opposition leader and teamed up with former prime minister Barak Scope, who in a November by-election won the parliamentary seat he had forfeited after being convicted of corruption as prime minister . He was jailed for three years. Sope was sprung from jail after just a few months on the personal decision of the Vanuatu president. In the weeks that followed, Natapei fended off two moves for no-confidence motions against him that failed because his political enemies led by Vohor and Sope didn't have the numbers. At the end of the year, Natapei appeared to control about 30/31 parliamentary seats and his opponents 20/21. Natapei seemed fairly likely to secure at least another year of power but one of is NUP ministers, Willy Jimmie, one of the numbers politicians alway s ready to take a better offer, was complaining that he wasn't happy with the trade minister's job he'd been given since he had wanted to be prime minister. As Vanuatu's president commented when he opened a session of parliament in December, the country would never advance while its politics rumble in the unstable style they have done since the first decade of independence in 1980. POLYNESIA
Opposition leader 8CAkilisi Pohiva predicts an international backlash. One already emanating from New Zealand, he says, only spells suffering for the people and a negative image for the kingdom. Pohiva said the government's continuing attempt at keeping Royal Tongan Airlines afloat is "stupid" considering the carrier recorded a loss of abou t 12 million pa'anga between November 2002 to June 2003. The government insists that Tonga needs an international jet airline for tourism development. While the government hopes the storm over its media control laws will die out, Pohiva's sentiments and other statements by Tongan professionals and the pro-democracy movement hint that the government will have a rocky 2004.
French Polynesia In December, French Polynesia's president, Gaston Flosse, announced a 10-year extension of a largely French-funded "pact of progress" developing the territory's economy. Focus will be on tourism, tuna fishing, aquaculture, including pearl farming and agriculture. MICRONESIA Marshalls/Federated States of Micronesia The Federated States of Micronesia and its neighbour, the Marshall Islands, |
