Warm Waters Ahead

Potential for an epidemic of dengue fever in Viti Levu, Fiji in 1900 (upper) and 2100 (lower) because of predicted changes in climate. Red shades indicate the highest potential for an epidemic, blue shades the least potential. Courtesy International Global Change Institute.

Pacific Island countries emit less than 1 percent of greenhouse gases yet they are the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, like rising sea levels, extreme weather events and warmer seawater. Climate change is a change in the "average" weather of a region. Many experts think that the amount of heat-trapping gases that agriculture, burning fossil fuels, clearing land and industrialization have released into the atmosphere has disrupted the natural balance of heating and cooling in the atmosphere.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that the surface temperature of the Earth will rise between 1.4 and 5.8ºC (2.5 and 9.7ºF) from 1990 to 2100. The changes will have an immense economic impact in the Pacific, not least in the fisheries area. Climate change will affect all aspects of fish production, along reefs, in shallow and deep water and on fish farms.

Coral reefs are a major source of food for many coastal communities, as well as protecting atoll island foundations and coastlines and providing sites for tourism and recreation. In a recent book, John E. Hay of the International Global Change Institute in New Zealand described some of the impacts of climate change on reefs. Coral bleaching from increases in sea temperatures will reduce the populations of reef fish and other economically important species found in shallow waters.

During the El Niño event of 1998-1999, near-surface temperatures in the coastal waters of Palau reached over 30ºC (86ºF) from June to November 1998, causing massive coral bleaching that killed one third of Palau's reefs. While no species became locally extinct, some populations fell by as much as 99 percent below pre-bleaching levels. Losses were estimated at US$91 million, with a 9 percent drop in annual tourism revenues.

Major fisheries may be the hardest hit. The Pacific Islands region has the world's largest tuna fishery, producing nearly 70 percent of the world's annual tuna harvest with a landed value close to $2 billion. Skipjack tuna are most common, with catches highest in the western equatorial Pacific where sea temperatures are at least 29ºC (84ºF). During El Niño years, the zone of warm water moves east and the tuna move with it. Climate change will probably bring more El Niño-like conditions, permanently shifting the main tuna shoals eastwards and threatening the fishing industries of some countries in the Pacific.

Predicted increase in storminess for 2006-2036 (upper) and 2070-2100 (lower), compared to 1990-2020. The red and yellow areas show high-pressure zones; the blue areas show low pressure zones. The more intense colors show greater pressure differences and hence more chance for storms. From Preparing for a Changing Climate, U.S. Global Research Program, East-West Center.

Many breeding grounds for important fish and shellfish species are located in shallow waters near coasts. These areas include mangroves, coral reefs and seagrass beds. All will be affected by climate changes such as raised temperature, salinity and sediment concentrations from storms, floods and inland and coastal erosion. A rise in sea level will drown some existing mangrove swamps; others will be eroded by more severe storms and higher king tides.

One study estimated that losing mangrove habitat to coastal erosion would cost Fiji between $266 and $403 per hectare each year for subsistence fishing. Decreased productivity of coral reefs would cost subsistence fishing in Viti Levu up to $2.3 million per year and commercial fishing up to $800,000 a year.

Extreme weather events like tropical cyclones, floods and droughts will become more frequent and intense. Sea levels may rise by 5 mm (0.2 inch) a year over the next 100 years as the ice caps melt.

The Pacific Islands are low lying or have coastal features that make them particularly vulnerable to climate change and sea level change. Most small island states will find it extremely difficult to adapt to changing conditions. In early December, 2003, the 188 Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change met in Milan, Italy to assess progress in addressing climate change. "The fact that 2003 is on track to be one of the warmest years on record should be a warning that we must all take seriously." says Joke Waller-Hunter, the Convention's Executive Secretary.

Governments must be ready to respond to the impacts that humanity's past emissions now make inevitable. As much of the Pacific battens down for the forthcoming cyclone season, Pacific Island negotiators at the Convention meeting were keen to make sure that issues relating to climate and extreme weather events stayed on the agenda.

Tuvalu's Enele Sopoaga, the vice president of the Bureau of the Conference of the Parties, speaking for the Alliance of Small Island States, stressed the urgent need to act to counter the impacts of climate change. He quoted former AOSIS chairman Tuiloma Neroni Slade who said, "It may be that we will manage to get our sustainable development policies right. Yet we will still face the risk that all will be undermined because of climate change."

Predicted increases in temperature (degrees C) for 2025-2034 (upper) and 2090-2099 (lower), compared to 1961-1990. The darker the color, the greater the temperature increase. From Preparing for a Changing Climate, US Global Research Program, East-West Center, Hawaii. Photo:

Pacific Islands need to adapt to the effects of climate change because climate-related disasters will affect livelihoods and individuals' ability to generate income. This adaptation is a dynamic process that will take time. Adaptation also involves actions to reduce vulnerability by, for example, building a sea wall to protect against sea level rise or repairing leaks in a water system to protect against drought.

Public pressure is mounting for action on adaptation. Vanuatu is already proposing actions like relocating villages to higher ground, improving the ability to capture and store water for daily use and developing community early warning systems. Adaptation also requires action at the national level with, for example, policy frameworks, high-level advocacy and budgeting processes.

A Regional Framework for Action on Climate Variability, Change and Sea Level Rise was drafted in 2000. It is the regional blueprint for collective action by Pacific Island governments, organizations and individuals and is supported by an annual multi-stakeholder roundtable. Communities and governments are increasingly concerned about the need to reduce the islands' vulnerability and manage the risks posed by extreme events and long-term change. Fisheries are under clear threat and climate change threatens dramatic and costly impacts in other areas of the economy.

"The Pacific region is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to the risks of climate change," says SPREP's Climate Change Adaptation expert Taito Nakalevu. "Future climate-related effects will be catastrophic if no attempt is made to adapt now."

Parts of this article are based on the book of John E. Hay et al. entitled Climate Variability and Change and Sea-level Rise in the Pacific Islands Region. Asterio Takesy is director of SPREP. See www.sprep.org.ws