French Territories in Turmoil

In both cases, anti-independence leaders who had ruled almost unopposed for the past quarter of a century have suffered major blows as a result of general elections.

The first tremor rocked New Caledonia on May 9 for the provincial elections that were to renew New Caledonia's three provincial governments in the North, South and Loyalty Islands.

Winds of change had been blowing for some time in New Caledonia's political spectrum and for the first time, a significant number of opposition figures (and incidentally dissidents from the ruling party) have managed to form an alliance known as the Avenir Ensemble (Future Together).

One of their motives was thinly-veiled: to put an end to the 25-year reign of New Caledonia's anti-independence strongman, Jacques Lafleur, founder and undisputed leader of the RPCR (Rally for New Caledonia within the French Republic).

RPCR has been controlling New Caledonia's key institution: its affluent Southern province, its territorial Congress (Parliament) and its local government, which came into being in 1999.

In fact, opposition figures from the new Future Together alliance mostly came from RPCR, which they had left, saying they were disappointed with the way the Nouméa Accord was implemented, or rather not implemented. But no one had predicted the people's verdict would have been this radical.

On the evening of May 9, that fateful Sunday, RPCR's stronghold, the Southern Province, chaired by Lafleur himself, fell to the Future Together coalition. And immediately, Future Together officials talked of a "political earthquake".

The new party netted 19 of the 40 seats and for the first time in years, RPCR became a minority party with only 16 seats, something unheard of to-date.

This was the beginning of the end because those provincial elections did affect the makeup of New Caledonia's Parliament, the Congress, and in turn that of the local government.

Indeed, a few days later, the Southern Province elected Philippe Gomes, of the Future Together coalition, as the new chairman, replacing Lafleur.

On May 15, 71-year-old Lafleur effectively resigned from all his local mandates (at both Provincial and Congress levels). He now only retains his seat in the French National Assembly as a representative for New Caledonia.

The following week, the 54-seat Congress, which reflected the proportional representation of each Provincial Assembly, held an inaugural meeting of its new five-year mandature.

But the proportions were slightly tighter: in the Congress, Avenir Ensemble had 16 seats and RPCR the same. The rest of the seats went to the pro-independence parties, mainly the UNI-FLNKS and the other factions‹Union Calédonienne and the anti-independence National Front (4 seats).

On May 21, the domino effect continued: the National Front and Union Calédonienne joined the Future Together coalition and elected Harold Martin as chairman of the congress.

Martin is a key member of the Future Together coalition, whom Lafleur had once sidelined. It seemed voters wanted a change.
Martin's victory and that of Future Together was greeted by cheers from a packed gallery. Nouméa Mayor Jean Lèques, who was chairing the inaugural congress session as the oldest member, had to call for order.

Asked how they perceived this change, voters told the local media they were delighted by the election results.

The fall of the Berlin Wall?

Many even added that they had not felt as good in a very long time and that now, for a change, they could express themselves "freely" and "without fear of reprisals".

Others mentioned the fall of the Berlin Wall. In this case, why not Ceaucescu? Why not indeed? So, in a similar type of "liberation mood", while they were at it, someone even came up with the idea to take members of the general public, mostly supporters and sympathisers, for a guided tour of the building, once a symbol of RPCR's unchallenged supremacy. This included a thorough inspection of Lafleur's office on the fourth floor.

A strange atmosphere indeed.

New Caledonia's Congress will now have to elect a new government, reflecting the new makeup of this Parliament. End of Chapter One.

Chapter Two: May 23, general elections in French Polynesia.

Nothing of the sort was expected to happen there: even adverse commentators were saying that incumbent President Gaston Flosse's anti-independence party, the Tahoeraa Huiraatira ("Rally for the People"), would get, as usual, a comfortable majority in the new 57-seat Assembly.

The dissolution curse?

Especially since Flosse had himself triggered this election, when he asked French President Jacques Chirac to dissolve the Assembly, days after France had granted (in March) French Polynesia a new autonomy status.

Chirac did, just as he did in 1995 after being elected French head of state, a move that did not bring the expected results at the time either. The general elections brought a majority of Socialists into the new National Assembly, forcing Chirac to appoint a Socialsit prime minister.

New rules had also been set for this election: any party getting the most seats in each of the six constituencies was sure to get a "bonus" of thirty percent of seats.

This, Flosse said, was designed to provide for clearer majorities and in effect accentuate the colours in Parliament. The electoral jigsaw of the constituencies had also been changed.

Flosse, who turns 73 this June, was also confident that as usual, this new Parliament would take a nice, orange colour, the colour of his party. In other words, everything was in place for yet another victory, only this time it would be even larger.

No one really knows what happened

Things turned out to be completely different. Instead, the new Assembly has turned half blue, the colour of Oscar Temaru's pro-independence Tavini Huiraatira ("Working for the People"). Was there, after all, some sort of a "dissolution curse" repeating itself?
The Tavini, for the general election, had rallied a three-way coalition‹the Union for Democracy (UPD) with two other opposition parties‹the Fetia Api (led by Phlippe Schyle) and the No Oe E Te Nunaa (which was formed last year by Nicole Bouteau, a former tourism minister in Flosse's government). But the two parties chose to contest the elections on their own.

Although the initial results gave Flosse's Tahoeraa the advantage in the outer islands, but when it came to the main island of Tahiti and neighbouring Moorea, the advantage went to UPD.

Now Flosse's Tahoeraa controls 28 seats in the new assembly, one short of a majority. Temaru's UPD was the major winner with 27 seats.

Two other opposition parties, the No Oe E Te Nunaa and the Fetia Api, with one seat each, now hold the balance of power in what has been described since March as an "overseas country within the French Republic".

What seemed to be inconceivable only a few months ago, both in New Caledonia and French Polynesia, has now happened.
What the incumbent rulers' parties now have to do is actually seek alliances with other parties to form majorities, because they no longer have enough support to rule alone, which they had been doing for the past 25 years.

Worse still, they could lose power. In French Polynesia, this is what will happen if any of the parties represented in the new Assembly want to control the chamber and form a government by mid-June.

Flosse warns against independence drift

Flosse reacted to the adverse election results by saying that "maybe this means French Polynesians wish for the independence of French Polynesia.

"I think the French President and French Overseas minister Brigitte Girardin will decide on what steps to take.

"But logically, after this Sunday's elections, a self-determination referendum should be organised.

"They (people) should be asked whether they want to transform this vote for Tavini Huiraatira into a vote for independence. I don't know whether those who have voted for UPD have really realised the consequences of their actions," he said.

But the repercussions of the recent political events will go beyond French Polynesia and New Caledonia's local politics.

Optimistic comments from both these French dependencies say this could be the beginning of a new era, especially since due to an on-going "cold" between Lafleur and Flosse, relations between the two French Pacific territories had been relatively non-existent for the past 25 years.

With regards to the integration of these French islands into the rest of the Pacific, their "natural environment", as the Nouméa Accord optimistically terms it, French Polynesia, paradoxically, seems to be more advanced, even if it does not have a Forum observer status as yet.

A Forum fact-finding mission could go there for that purpose sometime in July. For New Caledonia, in terms of regional relations, things can only get better with a new power in place, if it chooses to make full use of its Forum observer status.

Even in New Caledonia, Lafleur was cautious about the French Polynesian election results avoiding drawing any parallels.

Instead, he said, Flosse had lost because he had "too much of an absolute power" and that "some people feared him".

Shockwaves in Paris

Back in metropolitan France, shockwaves from those once-peaceful and idyllic Pacific islands have also been felt in the past few days as a result of the latest political swings.

French socialist party secretary general François Hollande, which recently secured a major victory in the French regional elections, once again grabbed the "political earthquake" line.

He said this was a sort of continuation of the recent French poll in April, when all but one of metropolitan France's regions shifted to the left, dealing a stinging blow to the ruling right-wing UMP party, its national government and eventually French President Jacques Chirac himself.

He also said this was the third defeat in French overseas dependencies for leaders perceived to be strong allies and in a way "offsprings" of French President Jacques Chirac.

"First, there was Lucette Michaud-Chevry in Guadeloupe (French Caribbean), then earlier this month Jacques Lafleur in New Caledonia. And now, this is Chirac's overseas network's third pillar that has just collapsed," Hollande said.

The French Socialist party recently signed an alliance memorandum with Temaru's Tavini, whereby it gave its backing to Temaru's pro-independence movement.

On the French government side, French minister for Overseas Brigitte Girardin, while saying this was "a healthy sign for democracy", also exerted caution against an apparent "polarisation" in the French Pacific's politics.

Responding to critics from the Socialists during heated debates in the French Nationali Assembly, she also cautioned left wing Socialists "not to celebrate too fast, because the electoral process is far from over yet".

Whatever happens next, this series of events can be considered as the end of a political era, and of France's influence in this region, when colonies were still the norm.

Lafleur and Flosse and their respective systems are in fact very similar. But one of the reasons why they've stayed in power for so long is that pessimists fear they can't be replaced.

€ Patrick Decloitre (padec@iname.com) is the Editor of Oceania Flash, an e-mail news service that aims at promoting regular information and better understanding between the French-speaking (Francophone) Pacific and the English-speaking Pacific.