A Window Of Opportunity

Samantha Magick

Satish Chand, a Fellow at the Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government at ANU, began by outlining the signs of recovery shown by the PNG economy last year and the "window of opportunity" that exists to "improve the domestic economy for long term growth." Chand said this will only happen "if we do things right. I really mean we, all of us in this room, plus our mates in Washington, and most importantly, Papua New Guinea."

One of those mates representing Washington, Xian Zhu, who is PNG Country Director for the World Bank, largely agreed with Chand's analysis, saying PNG's economic recovery has been primarily due to external factors such as good weather and good commodity prices. He believes "whether the government can remain committed to reform (in the current political climate) is a question mark."

But the most provocative presentation was by the Director of Focus Economics, Craig Sugden, who talked about his concerns over Australia's K$2 billion "Enhanced Cooperation Package" to PNG. He is worried about the lack of independent monitoring and review of the package, the fact that little information is available publicly about the package, and the concentration of assistance dollars and personnel in urban centers rather than the poorest of PNG's provinces. Sugden also questioned the investment in law and order (through support of the PNG police force) in proportion to health and education, saying, "regional experience may suggest that improving basic service delivery…can do much to lift standards."

But Sugden's most important question was about the level of PNG Government buy-in, saying while the package has been "publicly portrayed as a joint initiative, it can best be described as an initiative of the Australian government."

In response, General Manager at the Australian Treasury's Pacific and Assistance Division, Frances Perkins, talked about the "professional" and "collegiate" relationship treasury staff have with their Papua New Guinean counterparts while stressing, "we can't replace them and we shouldn't try to, that would undermine the credibility of the PNG Government."

The real action of course is not in Sydney, but in Port Moresby and the other Papua New Guinean towns where political groupings have been meeting, splitting and reconfiguring in the lead up to the predicted no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Sir Michael Somare. By the time you read this, the leadership question in PNG should have been settled, at least for a while, and implementation of the Economic Assistance Package a little clearer. As one speaker at the seminar said, when it comes to PNG's long-term economic and political development, "AusAid and foreign affairs are bit players." In many respects, these Australian agencies and departments seem to be working off quite different scripts to many of the lead actors in Port Moresby.

It does appear there will be some compromise from the Australians on whether Australian police officers based in PNG are subject to immunity from local laws or prosecution - one of the most public sticking points. Australian Foreign Affairs Minister, Alexander Downer, is saying Australians who break PNG's laws will be prosecuted. What is not clear is what mechanism will be employed.

The sense of surrealism wasn't confined to the seminar. Downstairs from the meeting, an entire room of the gallery was hung with paintings displaying the words "The End." For Papua New Guinea, it feels like a beginning of sorts. Let's hope its direction and form is determined in PNG, and ultimately by not only its political leaders, but also its citizenry.