We Say 3

'By playing its cards carefully in its Pacific territories, France can maintain a happy presence for itself in New Caledonia and French Polynesia. Research, technology, ingenuity, flair; France has a lot to offer Pacific Islands. It would be foolish to reject the reality of that'

Two of France's three Pacific territories in May held momentous elections that produced results that have important implications for their political and economic destinies and the French presence in the region.

In New Caledonia, the rigid old anti-independence basically white settler order for 25 years was swept away, although not to obliteration.

In French Polynesia, another conservative order, one that had lasted 20 years, was also removed but also was not obliterated. The new president of French Polynesia is none other than Oscar Temaru, the independence minded political foe of none other than Gaston Flosse, the anti-independence minded former president.

In New Caledonia, at the time Islands Business went to press, it was still not clear who the new government would be, except to say it would be less radically reform minded than the government Mr Temaru has put together.

Mr Temaru annoyed France by proclaiming as mayor Fa'a, the town that grew out of the side of Papeete, to be a nuclear free city and engaging in years of active opposition to past nuclear tests in the Tuamotu islands of French Polynesia.

His advent as president will be privately and not-so-privately deplored by the present French government. This, like previous French governments, regard French Polynesia and New Caledonia as aircraft carrier for the preservation of the French presence and prestige in the Pacific. France provides more than US$2000 million in aid annually to the two territories.

Mr Temaru's objective, but one that can be deferred for 20 years as he said quickly after his election, is ultimate independence for French Polynesia.

In New Caledonia, power as the biggest party of the territory's constitutionally required coalition government, has been transferred from the plain white old-fashioned keep-the-damn-natives-in-their-place thinking to the still conservative white and not-so-white thinking that is however, more realistic about if not exactly sympathetic with indigenous Kanak aspirations for the political leadership of the country.

Mr Temaru's priority is growing French Polynesia's economy, which is something Mr Flosse did quite successfully.

Until now, it was thought that only 20 to 25 percent of French Polynesia's locally born inhabitants wanted independence with the rest not feeling inclined to lose France's goodwill‹meaning money‹that has maintained them in the comfortable lifestyles they have become accustomed to.

The territory has no hope of going it alone, economically, not as a place where people expect a minimum wage of around US$900 a month.

So when was Mr Flosse dumped? Perhaps just because it was felt he'd been around too long and autocratically so, and perhaps because the mass of voters felt that too much wealth had accumulated in Flosse's favoured places.

Mr Temaru's policy, presumably, will be to spread money around much more equitably and make heavy attacks on social evils that visitors don't expect to encounter in the number one paradise on earth.

To do that, he needs to count on lots of French money for at least 20 more years. Will he stay in power that long? His parliamentary majority is slim‹only about two seats at the time Islands Business went to press. It depends on a few coalition allies.

Pockets the opposition have access to are deep. Mr Flosse isn't taking defeat graciously.

Population trends in New Caledonia are such that indigenous Kanaks, presently outnumbered but not that heavily by non-Kanaks, will eventually come out on top numerically; perhaps about 20 years.

Before then, by 2018 at the latest and 2015 at the earliest, there is supposed to be a reference on independence from France. People like Mr Jacques Lafleur, an immensely wealthy anti-independence leader, want the independence vote to be somehow cancelled or avoided. It is inconceivable that the Kanaks would allow that.

New Caledonia is quite different from French Polynesia economically. It has 20 percent of the world's nickel reserves, two huge new nickel mines are likely to open, there is good potential for other mineral discoveries including oil, and there is great potential for tourism, aquaculture, fishing, agriculture and science service industries.

New Caledonia has an exciting and very viable future, if its people and France play it right. Mr Lafleur and his pals weren't playing it right, not with the Kanaks. That's what the defectors from Mr Lafleur's camp felt and that's why they set up a new party to work closely with the Kanaks.

Doing that will insure their future in the territory when a Kanaka-dominated government eventually takes over.

By playing its cards carefully in its Pacific territories, France can maintain a happy presence for itself in New Caledonia and French Polynesia.

Research, technology, ingenuity, flair; France has a lot to offer Pacific Islands. It would be foolish to reject the reality of that.