Aftershocks ‘Round The Region Dealing With A Stormy Season

Samantha Magick

But there have been other types of cyclones at work as well.

Politically Nauru and French Polynesia continue to experience tumultuous weather. As we went to press, it was still unclear who was president in French Polynesia, with long-time President Gaston Flosse and independence leader Oscar Temaru both claiming that position, and the battle playing out at home and in the courts of Paris. The battle has repercussions for the region's leaders, who were quick to accept Temaru and consequently French Polynesia as an observer to the Pacific Islands Forum this year, a decision that they are now surely, privately contemplating with some trepidation.

In Nauru, while Ludwig Scotty has just won re-election in snap polls, the political situation-and certainly the economy -still look somewhat tenuous.

If these countries are in the throes of a political cyclone, it seems Fiji and Papua New Guinea are sitting in the momentarily quiet eye of one. In Fiji, the players in the 2000 coup continue to be exposed and to face the courts in a way those of 1987 never did. But the mixed success of the national reconciliation process shows the difficulties of reconciliation without regret or contrition or indeed, acknowledgement from some of the key players.

And in Papua New Guinea, political alliances and power plays continue to ebb and flow around Prime Minister Sir Michael Somare, who still fights a rumored no-confidence push. Significantly in both these nations, the economies appear to be quite robust.

In contrast, the economies of the Freely Associated Compact states, have suffered if not a typhoon, then certainly a strong current of change this year, with the new agreements between the United States and the Federated States of Micronesia and Marshall Islands. As Jason Aubuchon reports in this issue of Pacific Magazine, the new arrangements will require fundamental changes in economic management in FSM.

That's not to say it is all bad or tumultuous. We have seen a reinvigorated Pacific Islands Forum this year, led by current chairman, Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi and Secretary General Greg Urwin. The tourism industries of most Pacific Island nations look healthy, with new investments expected to come on line in many countries in 2005 and several poised to explore the benefits of Chinese Approved Destination Status. The airline sector has changed dramatically, with the entry of new operators resulting in improved services to Pacific Islanders. This sector continues to be threatened by rising oil prices and most observers believe there will be a process of natural selection, with only the strongest players surviving into next year and beyond.

On a more modest scale, at Pacific Magazine too, we have experienced some significant shifts. In 2005 we will endeavor to continue to increase our reach and improve coverage of all parts of the Pacific Islands region, improve our analysis, and explore innovation amongst our people-while introducing a few innovations of our own. Pacific is only as strong as our contributors, and we have been fortunate to add some respected new voices, particularly from the South Pacific, to our established and authoritative writers from Marshall Islands, Guam, Federated States of Micronesia and CNMI this year.

New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research says we should expect an increased number and intensity of cyclones this season. That's probably true of political and economic cyclones as well. Some of us will simply put up the hurricane shutters and stock up on candles. But we also hope some of us find the ability to avert them, and steer against the wind.