Environment
El Niño Woes
Preparing For The Return Of El Niño
Be prepared! The Boy Scouts and Girl Guide and Scouts movements are familiar with that advice. It’s a motto that should be adopted by anyone likely to be impacted by a natural disaster and that means all of us. In the North Pacific where El Niño translates to drought, public awareness on El Niño developments and impacts is the key to equip people with knowledge on how to better deal with such conditions and ultimately reduce costs.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (also known as ENSO) is the interaction of the atmosphere and ocean across the equatorial Pacific. It’s often represented by prolonged sea surface temperature anomalies and can have both positive impacts (much needed rain to areas that depend on rainwater) and negative (prolonged drought) on Pacific Island environments.
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| A graphic warning of the threat posed by El Niño in Federated States of Micronesia. [Photo Courtesy: SPREP] |
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In 1998 the extended dry spells in Marshall Islands drove the government of the day to appeal to the United States for desalination plants for the Micronesian country’s two urban centers, Majuro and Ebeye. Water supply in the capital Majuro was rationed to once every two weeks as fresh water supplies dropped drastically.
A state of emergency was declared in FSM in February 1998 as the drought worsened. Low supplies of water meant an increase in health risks. Health officials in FSM warned of possible hepatitis outbreaks, while dehydration and gastro-intestinal problems became widespread among the islands of FSM. Wildfires were common in FSM, Palau and Hawaii.
Palau experienced nine months of dry weather in which it lost $740,000 through taro failure. Crop losses were experienced also in FSM, the Marshall Islands and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Many workers in the fishing industry in FSM lost their jobs.
The campaign and the lessons gained from the El Niño years of the past are invaluable because they give us a sense of control over the event. I recall a statement by the director of the U.S.-based National Hurricane Center, Max Mayfield, who said: “Preparation through education is less costly than learning through tragedy.”
In September 2006, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the United States organisation responsible for weather and climate monitoring, issued an advisory of a developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific. According to NOAA, a weak El Niño has formed and is likely to persist into early 2007. The condition could progress from a weak to a moderate event.
The impacts of El Niño differ according to geographic location. For many in the North Pacific, El Niño means extended dry conditions, while parts of the South Pacific are deluged with rain, often leading to flash floods. For traditionally low-rainfall islands like Tuvalu and Kiribati, El Niño can be a cause for celebration as it brings much needed water.
The Pacific ENSO Applications Center (PEAC) has been active in creating awareness in the North Pacific on natural disasters. Its public education on El Niño started in 1995 and part of that outreach stint was getting people to learn how to better manage their water resources.
PEAC produces a quarterly bulletin called Pacific ENSO Update for Pacific Island countries affiliated with the United States. It produces regular and tailored forecasts to its members; interprets ENSO climate conditions and communicates them to its readers; supports education programs on ENSO-related events to further preparedness; and enhances partnership among scientific communities, government agencies, and local decision-makers.
From February 1997 to mid-1998, PEAC went through a series of national outreach activities to improve the communication and awareness of the El Niño event. An ENSO drought task force was set up that looked at, among other things, shared experiences and information on how to build family water-catchment tanks and to develop multi-agency and organizational partnerships at the local level.
The lessons learned from the 1997 to 1998 event have improved PEAC’s outreach component.
SPREP strongly supports these outreach and awareness initiatives as a means of empowering affected communities to better manage the negative impacts of El Niño. We continue to assist capacity development of the national weather services of our 21 member countries and in doing so, improve the monitoring of weather and climate information in the Pacific region. This is a partnership with NOAA, the East-West Center, University of Oklahoma, the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
Asterio Takesy is the director of the Secretariat for the Pacific Regional
Environmental Programme, which is based in Apia, Samoa. For more information visit www.sprep.org
