Cover Story
Back To The Future
Why Few Islanders Make The Power 10
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Pacific Magazine’s Power 10 list would be dramatically different if this was 1977 instead of 2007. In that era, most of the region was in the first blush of post-independence. There were true great leaders from the islands who cast long shadows over the Pacific. Their names, in their nations and in the region, recall an era of hope and high expectations: Ratu Sir Kamisese K.T. Mara and Ratu Sir Penaia K. Ganilau of Fiji; Albert Henry of the Cook Islands; Sir Michael Somare of Papua New Guinea; Tosiwo Nakayama of the Federated States of Micronesia; and, Amata Kabua of the Marshall Islands, to name a few.
With the exception of Sir Michael, the self-described “old man” of the Pacific, nearly all of the leaders of that generation have passed away, and with them that generation’s optimism about the future.
Much of that early optimism was focused on the expectation that political and eventually economic power would flow from London, Canberra, Wellington, Washington and Paris to regional capitals such as Suva, Port Moresby and Majuro. In retrospect, it is clear that the optimism was not grounded in reality, either then or now. But political power is as much about expectations as it is reality, and to have lived in the region during that period is to recall a time when all seemed possible.
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Add to that the grim reality of failed governance—there is no other way to say it. Most of our regional governments have become victims of their own incompetence, greed and lack of vision and courage. In some cases, to be fair, traditional animosities and cultural constraints have hampered the best efforts of the region’s brightest and most talented leaders. But there is no getting around the cumulative effect of decades of graft, corruption and incompetence. It has, in many regional governments, established a culture of complacency that deadens the spirit.
It is no surprise that the region’s traditional metropolitan powers—to use a colonial-era term—have moved to fill the leadership vacuum in the Pacific. They have no choice: one thing that has not changed from the colonial era is the region’s relative strategic importance to Australia, New Zealand, the United States and now, to Asian powers such as Japan, China and Taiwan.
Their strategic interests differ. For Australia and New Zealand, an unstable Pacific represents a strategic threat on their doorsteps. This was a lesson learned the hard way in World War II. But it also has domestic considerations, given the huge Pacific Polynesian population in New Zealand and the significant commercial interests that both countries have in the region.
The United States is quickly rediscovering that the Western Pacific has significant strategic value to its political and commercial interests in Asia. The military buildup on Guam, as we have chronicled in these pages, is indicative of that reality. In the rest of the Pacific, however, Washington has gladly turned over policing duties to Australia. That is why the only American official who makes this year’s Power 10 list is the Guam-based admiral who oversees the Navy’s Western Pacific command.
Japan’s regional role is driven by its diplomatic and economic agendas. Tokyo has been upfront about its interests, and as we note in this report, is becoming increasingly adept at demanding the appropriate responses from the Pacific recipients of its overseas development assistance largesse.
The China-Taiwan diplomatic battle that is being fought across the Pacific will continue to play out for some time. About one quarter of all of the nations that recognize Taiwan are in our region. It is no wonder that Taipei courts its Pacific allies. And Beijing has come to realize that any gains that Taiwan makes in the Pacific will be at its expense.
While no French national leader makes this year’s Power 10, we are closely watching the renewed interest Paris is showing in the region. Last year’s second “Pacific summit” in Paris makes clear that the French consider themselves power players in the Pacific. Whether that interest gets translated into significant aid programs for non-French territories or direct involvement in some of the region’s crisis points (Fiji, Solomons, Tonga and Nauru, for instance) remains to be seen.
We don’t expect metropolitan governments to continue dominating the Power 10 rankings for the foreseeable future. The financial and governance regimes imposed by metropolitan nations in the Solomons, to a lesser extent Papua New Guinea, Marshall Islands and FSM could strengthen a culture of accountability in those nations. The Pacific Islands Forum’s “Pacific Plan” is a blueprint for good governance, and offers much hope for the development of national institutions that encourage leadership and vision.
But above all, we believe the biggest change between 1977 and 2007 is that the citizens of what is now a mostly independent Pacific are fed up with “business as usual.” We believe that in their own way those citizens will demand national leadership that is accountable and provides opportunities for the future.
It won’t happen overnight, but it will happen.
#1 John Howard
PHOTO: Bruce Southwick/ZoomFiji
Prime Minister of Australia
For the third year running John Howard holds the top spot in Pacific Magazine’s “Power 10,” and the only thing likely to dislodge him from the position is whether he decides to contest next year’s Australian general election—a matter of great conjecture in his own nation still.
While Australia has had a difficult 12 months in the region, with the gap between the prime minister and some Pacific Island leaders, particularly those of Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea and now Fiji widening, Howard himself appears relatively untroubled by these tensions.
Despite attempts by Solomons Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare to challenge Australia’s leadership and role in the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI), that leadership remains very much intact, and unthreatened. Howard agreed to a review of RAMSI through the Pacific Islands Forum, saying after the Forum’s meeting last October, “in the long-run the RAMSI way is the way of the future if other countries get into to similar difficulties.”
He has also had run-ins with PNG’s Prime Minister Sir Michael Somare over the covert flight of Australian lawyer Julian Moti out of PNG, and with Fiji’s interim Prime Minister Commander Voreqe Bainimarama over the military coup of December.
But he has maintained seemingly unshakable confidence in his government’s strategic decisions in the region.
Howard has also introduced two initiatives with an eye to the Pacific, a climate change and forests program, and the Regional Vocational Training College, which begins training students at four regional campuses in the next few months. Both initiatives are motivated in part, by an attempt to deflect regional and domestic criticism over his government’s climate change response, and unwillingness to introduce temporary labor migration programs.
Howard has signaled Australia will continue to play a major role in the Pacific Islands region for the next 10 to 20 years, saying it’s in Australia’s strategic, historical and “sentimental” interests. “If we just throw up our arms and go away, you’ll end up with these places being taken over by interests that are very hostile to Australia,” he told the Sunday Telegraph this year.
“It’s also walking away from our moral responsibility. We are far and away the most powerful and influential country in the whole area and nobody else will do the job if we don’t,” he added.
Howard is often referred to as the “Deputy Sherriff” (of the United States and President George W. Bush) in respect to his leadership in the Pacific and South East Asia. It is a label he dislikes, but one that has stuck. Earlier this year, U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney said, “Australia’s contribution to security and to good governance in the Pacific Island countries is principled. It’s effective, and it’s indispensable. History has set a good deal of work in front of us, and none of it is easy. Yet together we compose one of the world’s great alliances, a broad and successful partnership based on deep respect, shared values, and great strength used to good purposes.”
It is the fact that Australia’s influence in the region is part of a much larger strategic picture that keeps John Howard at Number One.
#2 Helen Clark
PHOTO: Bruce Southwick/ZoomFiji
Prime Minister of New Zealand
As with Australia and its Prime Minister John Howard, the influence New Zealand and Prime Minister Helen Clark wields in the Pacific needs to be seen through the prism of a larger, global context.
When Clark was in the United States recently she said, “The work we are doing on stability with our Pacific partners is, we believe, just as relevant to the U.S. as it is to us.”
But she says the region faces “serious challenges” including weak or corroded governments, health and population issues, calls for democratic reform, vulnerability to natural disasters, and security threats arising from terrorism and nuclear proliferation.
On several issues Clark’s government has provided clear leadership in the past year. New Zealand is providing $2 million towards a reconstruction package following the riots in Tonga last November. This includes a business recovery fund to assist the private sector, which is being held and administered through the Reserve Bank of Tonga.
New Zealand has also agreed to trial temporary labor programs with five Pacific Island states. And it has attempted to play a mediating role between Australia and Solomon Islands over RAMSI’s mandate; and between feuding Fiji leaders, then-Prime Minister Laisenia Qarase and military commander, Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama. That was an ultimately unsuccessful intervention, but Clark seems increasingly keen to be seen, and work as a mediator.
Apart from Wellington’s position on Fiji, Clark has been louder and more direct in her criticism of the coup than most, announcing a number of sanctions including “high level contacts between the two countries: immigration; defense and sports links; and development assistance links of an inter-governmental character.”
“The New Zealand Government cannot overstate the severity with which it views the actions of Commodore Bainimarama and the Fiji military. They must cease their disgraceful acts and restore the legitimately elected government, or suffer the consequences of their grossly illegal acts,” she says. Whether in stating her position so unequivocally Clark will alienate other Pacific Island states who advocate less interference in the Fiji political system will be a test of her support in the region.
#3 Chen Shui-bian
President of Taiwan
Wen Jiabao
Premier of the People’s Republic of China
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| PHOTO: Associated Press |
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| PHOTO: Associated Press |
The battle between China and Taiwan for diplomatic and political influence looks to remain one of the most important Pacific Island regional diplomatic and security dynamics for some time to come. Taiwan’s President Chen Shui-bian and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao are the most senior faces of these Pacific rivals.
President Chen has been plagued by domestic opposition and difficulties in recent months, culminating with the charging of his wife on corruption charges. He is completing his second term, meaning this is likely the last time he will be on the Power list.
Wen Jiabao is the Premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, and ranks third in the complex Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China hierarchy. He has a taxing travel schedule, which last year included an official visit to Fiji to meet with Pacific Island leaders, where he expressed the hope they would remain “trustworthy friends and sincere partners.” He says China’s interest and involvement in the region is a “strategic decision,” not a diplomatic expediency.
While Pacific leaders welcomed China’s growing involvement in the region at that summit, they sounded a warning about the danger of becoming over-reliant on aid. But for the many Pacific countries that have historical ties to Asia, or more recently enunciated “Look North” policies, aid from China or Taiwan is crucial not just for its volume, but because it is largely unencumbered by the governance and accountability requirements of other aid donors.
This year Australian analyst Graham Dobell wrote that the competition for influence between Taiwan and China is making Pacific poltics “more corrupt and more violent.”
Chen has told Pacific Magazine that claims Taiwan had interfered in Solomon Islands’ last elections were false, but concerns about covert sponsorship and funding of certain sympathetic candidates in elections of that and upcoming elections in other countries persist.
Dobell believes that today, any significant diplomatic discussion in the Pacific must factor in China’s wishes. And he says China “draws strength from a regional perception of a diminished United States role in the South Pacific.” There is also power in a simple examination of numbers. China likely has more diplomats in the Pacific Islands than any other country, and “over 3,000 Chinese state-owned and private enterprises have been registered in the Pacific region with investments of about US$620 million,” Dobell writes.
Taiwanese investments are more modest, although after meeting the leaders of his six Pacific allies last September, Chen announced a pledge of $374 million in loans to those nations. He also employed his gift for rhetoric, repeatedly talking about his “six brothers from the Pacific Islands.”
The enthusiasm China and Taiwan bring to their relations in the Pacific have the potential to set brother against brother, a mark of their significant and growing influence.
#5 VOREQE BAINIMARAMA
Interim Prime Minister of Fiji
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| PHOTO: Jocelyn Carlin |
Fiji’s interim Prime Minister Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama can’t travel to the United States, Australia or New Zealand. Nonetheless, he is having a big impact on the foreign policies of those countries as they relate to the
Pacific Islands.
The U.S. has canceled Bainimarama’s U.S. visa after he staged Fiji’s fourth coup, or “political transition” as he prefers to call it, last December. The commander has challenged U.S. Ambassador Larry Dinger to “prepare his running shoes,” a reference to the army’s tactic of taking dissenters for military-style training runs, if he attempts to seize Bainimarama’s passport. Which he wouldn’t of course. But Bainimarama’s “threat”—tongue in cheek or not—is a good illustration of his approach to foreign and local critics of his military take over.
Bainimarama has released a “road map” to democracy, which as yet is fairly scant on detail. But the commander does say Fiji will be ready for a general election and full restoration of parliamentary democracy by 2010. He has undertaken to: pursue corruption investigations; resolve the “land lease issue;” restructure the sugar industry; review electoral constituency boundaries; hold a population census; and review the country’s election system with a view to eliminating all race-based polling.
While there is much to concern Bainimarama on the domestic front, he has also said the Interim Government is ready to engage with the international community “to explain our political transition and the steps we are taking to take Fiji forward.” That engagement includes discussions with the Pacific Islands Forum group looking at assisting Fiji return to democracy. It will involve talking to multilateral funders, who have suspended programs with Fiji. And as the home of several regional organizations, it will involve reassuring regional governments that Fiji is a stable and suitable location for such political and technical organizations.
While Fiji isn’t the largest or most economically vibrant of the Pacific Island nations, its geographic and political location in the region means what happens there has wider implications for her neighbors. The legacy of Bainimarama’s leadership, regardless of how it was acquired, will determine whether that influence is positive or negative.
#6 SHINZO ABE
Prime Minister of Japan
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| PHOTO: Associated Press |
Japan under its last two prime ministers began taking an increasingly assertive role in Pacific Islands affairs. First under Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori from 2000 to 2001, then through Prime Minister Junichiro Kozumi’s administration from 2001 to 2006, Tokyo’s quiet but determined diplomacy in the region has not wavered.
Its policy focuses on developing regional support for: whaling by Japanese fleets supposedly for “scientific” purposes; Japan’s bid to be a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council; unrestricted passage through regional waters for ships carrying Japanese spent nuclear fuel to Europe, and reprocessed fuel back to Japan; and, access to regional waters for Japanese fishing fleets, particularly those in search of tuna.
That focus and approach is likely to remain constant under Japan’s newest prime minister, Shinzo Abe, who came to power last year.
Abe is Japan’s first prime minister born after World War II and the youngest since the war. He comes from political royalty —Abe’s father served in a number of ministerial positions, including foreign minister; his maternal grandfather was a former prime minister; and, his paternal grandfather was a Member of Parliament.
Tokyo has used its Pacific Islands Leaders Meetings, or so-called PALM Summits, to make clear its regional interests and aspirations. The most recent tri-annual summit was held last year in Okinawa. At that summit, outgoing Prime Minister Koizumi pledged the equivalent of $400 million in regional assistance over the next three years, much of it as grants. That figure reflected a $116 million increase in overseas development assistance to the Pacific.
But beyond the PALM process, Japan has also begun showing the flag in ways that reminds the Pacific that it plays a special regional role. The 2005 visit by Emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko to Saipan, a former Japanese possession and site of one of World War II’s most horrific battles, was both a royal and Pacific first. Last year, Crown Prince Naruhito led Japan’s official delegation to the funeral of Tonga’s King Tafa’ahau Tupou IV. The Japanese royal was feted at the funeral.
While Prime Minister Abe is unlikely to be as personally engaged with regional affairs as Prime Minister John Howard of Australia or Prime Minister Helen Clark of New Zealand, his role overseeing a focused Foreign Ministry-driven policy makes him a key Pacific power player. Japan has the foreign aid, the technical expertise, the fishing fleets and the tourists to make it the region’s soft-spoken powerhouse.
#7 WILLIE TAN
Chief Executive Officer, Tan Holdings
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| PHOTO: FLOYD K. TAKEUCHI |
It has been a tough year for Willie Tan, the chief executive officer of one of the largest locally-based business enterprises in the Pacific. His Tan Holdings empire, which stretches from China to the U.S. West Coast, and as far south as American Samoa, is going through an expected if painful realignment of focus.
The former cornerstone of the Tan Holdings was its Saipan-based garment factory, one of the largest, which was established in the early 1980s. Garment factories (on Saipan and later throughout China and Southeast Asia) propelled the Tans from a mom-and-pop operation involved in small-scale retail and regional movie distribution to being a major player in the international fashion retail industry.
But the future of Saipan’s garment industry was clear more than two years ago when World Trade Organization rules were being rewritten to remove most of the duty benefits of assembling apparel on the island. Indeed, Willie Tan and his fellow company executives were already envisioning a future without a garment factory on Saipan more than two years ago. Thus it was no surprise when Tan Holdings announced late last year that it would shutter its huge Saipan factory in February. The only surprise came when workers, most from China, raised a stink and marched to Tan’s Fiesta Resort to protest the closing.
The march was ironic in that the garment workers were implicitly acknowledging that Tan Holdings was already looking to other industries – primarily tourism-focused – to grow the company. Other strong segments of the Tan Holdings empire include fishing, air and sea freight, logistics, and real estate.
But the fact is that its current big play—tourism—is a highly risky one. Tan Holdings has no senior executives who have broad experience in international tourism. It has chosen to develop its own brand, Fiesta Resorts, rather than have a seasoned hotel management company with an international or regional reach assume day-to-day control of its two major hotels on Saipan and one on Guam. And it is banking on low-yield tourists from China to fill its hotels, brought in by Tan’s travel agency, of course, rather than develop a niche for higher-end visitors.
All this is taking place while the Saipan tourism industry continues to contract at an alarming rate. The big problem: only one carrier has scheduled air connections to Japan, Saipan’s biggest market.
Willie Tan, the consummate entrepreneur, isn’t waiting for times to get better on Saipan. He’s been expanding his regional fishing efforts, and now has major fleets in the Marshall Islands and Federated States of Micronesia, and has established a fisheries foothold in the Hawaii market. He has been making a concerted effort to expand his presence in the Marshalls in other areas. He’s now providing air freight service to American Samoa, which has opened the door to expanded services into the South Pacific.
Still, for the short-term at least, the company’s fortunes will be adversely affected by the Northern Marianas economy’s continuing free fall. Given that, while Saipan remains Tan Holdings’ emotional heart, it is now possible to envision a future when the island is but a side note to its bigger plays elsewhere in the Pacific and Asia.
And one thing about Willie Tan, as his competitors have discovered over the years: don’t bet against him.
#8 REAR ADMIRAL
WILLIAM D. FRENCH
Commander U.S. Naval Forces Marianas
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| PHOTO: U.S. Navy |
Rear Admiral William D. French is now the top U.S. military officer in Guam. He assumes command of U.S. Naval Forces Marianas as the Department of Defense prepares to launch the “the largest project that DOD has ever attempted,” as B. J. Penn, assistant secretary of the Navy for Installations and Environment described the coming buildup in January. That project involves spending $10 billion to $15 billion during the next five to 10 years primarily to build facilities to accommodate 8,000 U.S. Marines and their families who will be moved from Okinawa to Guam by 2014—there are currently no Marine units based in Guam. The buildup also involves improving Navy facilities to berth larger submarines, logistics ships and transient aircraft carriers. An Army battalion will also move to Guam to set up a missile defense task force. Improvements are also being made at Guam’s huge Air Force installation, Andersen Air Force Base.
French’s responsibilities extend throughout the Micronesia region. While the bulk of the activity will be in Guam, the military also plans to develop training facilities in Saipan and Tinian in the Northern Marianas. His full title is commander of Navy Region Marianas; U.S. Pacific Command Representative, Guam, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Republic of Palau; and commander of U.S. Naval Forces Marianas. For the past 18 months he has been the commander of Naval Region Northwest in Bangor, Washington.
In a March 13 article in Washington’s Kitsap Sun newspaper, community officials are quoted as praising French’s local community involvement. “He made the extra effort to be involved in the community, making sure we know what the Navy’s doing, what their plans are and what their issues and concerns are, and vice versa,” Kitsap County Commissioner Chris Endresen told the paper.
Such qualities are likely to be both appreciated and tested as Guam tries to understand and influence the impact of the military buildup on the civilian community.
#9 SIR MICHAEL SOMARE
Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea
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| PHOTO: Bruce Southwick/ZoomFiji |
The region’s elder statesman, Papua New Guinea Prime Minister Sir Michael Somare looks set to contest the country’s national elections this year, despite protesting in recent times that he didn’t want to be moving around Parliament with a walking stick. And it comes after he achieved the unprecedented feat of staying in office for the entire five-year life of a Parliament. The election will see him face strong opposition from former Prime Minister Sir Mekere Morauta and his former treasurer Bart Philemon among many others—PNG is one of the region’s most complex and robust democracies—and as such his position on this list next year is by no means guaranteed.
But his influence as an “old man from the Pacific” as he referred to himself at last year’s Pacific Islands Forum meeting, could not have been clearer than at that gathering. He used the opening address as chairman, usually a standard presentation on the work of the organization in the preceding 12 months, to make a few pointed observations about regional political dynamics.
“As someone often regarded as representing the old guard in the region, I value mutual respect in the conduct of relations. The gradual erosion of respect for the sovereignty of nations in our relations should not be allowed to fester,” he told his fellow leaders.
Following the military coup in Fiji, Sir Michael is now Pacific Islands Forum acting chairman.
Sir Michael’s political position has been strengthened by the strong performance of the PNG economy in the past year, largely because of its mining and petroleum sector and healthy markets for those commodities. Sir Michael sits on this list because of his country’s political and economic clout, but also because of his personal mana. If he is reinstated as prime minister in July, his continued position here is assured.
#10 GREG URWIN
Secretary General, Pacific Islands Forum
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| PHOTO: Bruce Southwick/ZoomFiji |
As Secretary General of the Pacific Islands’ most important regional organization, Greg Urwin continues to lead with a steady hand. But the relevance of the Pacific Islands Forum is under scrutiny as never before.
Urwin and his team have been focused on the implementation of the “Pacific Plan” for the past 18 months. Urwin calls this and other Pacific Forum initiatives a “broadening of our compass” aimed at “the delivery of better services to our members. It is by that standard that we succeed or fail. That must always be our yardstick.”
But some Forum member states are looking at other measurements of the organization’s effectiveness—such as how the grouping can help negotiate a return to democracy in Fiji. It has set up a working group to explore election-related technical assistance to Fiji, and will have the difficult task of mediating between members with polarized views on the Fiji coup and its aftermath.
A second issue is how to keep the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI) on track. That issue dominated the Forum leaders meeting in Fiji last year. Urwin is a big supporter
of RAMSI.
“We believe it has made a strong contribution to the recovery of the Solomon Islands, we think that it is an endeavor that is valued greatly by people in the Solomon Islands, and it is a genuine expression of a regional effort. Certainly as has been pointed out, it is Australian led and the preponderance of the resources are Australian, but this does ignore the very real contribution that has been made right around the region,” he said late last year.
Beyond the political dramas of these controversies is the more wide-reaching issue of the current trade negotiations with the European Union, and subsequently Australia and New Zealand. Urwin’s team is taking the lead in facilitating and resourcing those negotiations. Their outcome—while not entirely within the Pacific Island Forum’s control—will be beyond the shorter term political flashpoints, a critical yardstick for the Pacific Islands Forum and Urwin’s leadership.
