Pacific Magazine > Magazine > August 30, 2007

Marshall Islands

On Atolls, All Politics Is Local

Paychecks Not Policies May Determine November Election

By Giff Johnson, MAJURO

The Marshall Islands, which is gearing for a national election in November, faces numerous challenges—from its Compact relations with the U.S. to poor government performance. Historically, however, family ties have been far more important in determining election outcomes in the Marshall Islands.   Photo: Benjie Digno, Jr.

Election years tend to be lost time in the Marshall Islands, as the gears of government—never known for speed at the best of times—remain firmly in neutral, while political leaders calculate their moves for the November 19 vote.

Can President Kessai Note maintain his 20-13 parliamentary majority in this year’s national election? He swept to power in the 1999 elections on the strength of voters’ concerns about mismanagement in an earlier government. He and his United Democratic Party were given a second term with a larger majority in 2003 largely because voters felt it would bring more aggressive reform action that was the rallying cry of Note’s first four years in office.

But improved performance, with a few notable exceptions, hasn’t been the hallmark of the national government despite a workforce that has
increased close to 50 percent since Note took office in 2000. The status quo mentality prompted the government’s chief planner, Carl Hacker, to issue a blunt memo in early July to ambassadors, permanent secretaries, and program managers saying the “cavalier attitude” shown toward performance budgeting in different government ministries “needs to change… if we continue to goof around and don’t get a lot more serious about performance, outcomes, efficiency and effectiveness, you are inviting the (U.S.) Department of Interior to take over our Compact budgets, like what is happening in Kosrae and Chuuk (in the Federated States of Micronesia).”

Still, a central question for the election is how important is government performance to voters? And even if it is an issue, the opposition party’s main aim if elected is to go head-to-head with Washington on nuclear test compensation, the dispute over long-term use of Kwajalein atoll, and a raft of Compact II issues, not domestic reforms.

Additionally, a government payroll bill that’s risen from $16 million in 1999 to $30 million last year is ringing alarm bells in every off-shore donor agency, but for Note and his administration, more government jobs is simply smart politics, a way to distribute the aid wealth. Do the 2,400 people receiving a biweekly paycheck from government—and their families—want a political change that might affect their livelihood?

In this nation of 52,500 people, family relationships have historically been a far more significant determinant of electability than political platforms. Still, in the last two elections there have been clearly defined political parties: Note’s nominally-reform oriented UDP, which has its base among commoners and heaviest representation in the Ratak Chain atolls, and the Ailin Kein Ad (Our Islands) party that is led by the most powerful chiefs from the Ralik Chain, which includes the Reagan Test Site at Kwajalein Atoll.

The wildcard in this year’s national election is new Kwajalein Senator Tony deBrum, elected in a February by-election. He has reinvigorated the moribund opposition, giving it a much-needed voice.

How his political savvy will play out in the November election is still anyone’s guess, since deBrum and several key former government leaders were resoundingly voted out of office in 1999, and defeated again in 2003. But he’s crystallizing the debate between the two parties and forcing problems at Kwajalein onto the front burner.Although Compact II is now heading into its fourth year of implementation, numerous outstanding issues with the U.S. remain, from nuclear test compensation to the inadequacy of the national trust fund.

It appears that the Democrat-controlled U.S. Congress is willing to take issue with the Bush Administration in meeting the Marshall Islands part way on some issues, but it begs the question of whether the Marshall Islands is prepared or even capable—given internal dissention and lack of national direction—of maximizing the potential of the new-look U.S. Congress.

The impasse at Kwajalein is a political time bomb that impacts every aspect of the relationship with the U.S. An agreement between the U.S. and Marshall Islands governments gives the U.S. long-term use of the missile testing range through 2086. Since all land in the country is privately held, the government needs a “land use agreement” approved by Kwajalein landowners to implement the pact with the U.S.

But the landowners won’t accept the rental terms offered and have refused to sign a new LUA, even though this means that they can’t receive the modest bump up in quarterly rental payments under Compact II, rental money that is in an escrow account reportedly worth $16 million.

Nothing will be resolved before the November election, and prospects for a breakthrough given the level of polarization between Kwajalein leaders and the national government look slight in the coming year unless one side capitulates, or the Note government is not reelected. Still, until Kwajalein’s status is resolved, the stability of long-term U.S. presence in the Marshall Islands is in question.

Three Chances For Growth Three significant business developments are coming on line in 2007 that give some hope for the economy that has remained stagnant for years, helping to fuel out-migration to the U.S. that since 1996 has numbered over 1,000 annually. The Shanghai-based Deep Sea Fisheries Company is preparing to reopen a tuna processing plant in Majuro that has been dormant since 2004, when the previous American owner went bankrupt. It is expected to offer more than 500 jobs. Japan Airlines launched direct charter service to Majuro in February, and is indicating plans to increase the number of flights in 2008 and beyond. With about 200 Japanese tourists on each flight injecting an estimated $200,000 into the Majuro economy, this is the biggest tourism development ever. Then there’s the long-delayed floating dry-dock from Taiwan, that is now slated to arrive in Majuro before the end of 2007. The largest foreign investment ever—at about $18 million—it will offer some jobs and help cement Majuro’s position as a hub for the fishing industry in this part of the Pacific, though some raise concerns about a possible negative impact on the tourism industry and the environment