Meteorologist Warns New El Nino Forming By End Of 2008
(Tahitipresse)
A U.S. meteorologist and climate researcher has predicted what no one else has so far — a moderate to strong El Nino in the tropical South Pacific Ocean by Christmas that “will likely be the strongest El Nino in over 10 years," Tahitipresse reports.
The prediction comes from David Dilley, a former meteorologist with the U.S. National Weather Service, who now works for the Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), which he founded in 1992.
El Nino, one of two great natural Pacific water currents, forms approximately every four to seven years in the tropical South Pacific Ocean. The other Pacific current is known as La Nina, which cooled sea surface waters in the equatorial Pacific from the third quarter of last year through the first quarter of this year.
In April, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology reported that La Nina had begun to weaken, but added that while temperatures were heading back to a neutral range over the next few months, there was no threat of El Nino returning this year.
But by June, La Nina conditions continued to weaken in the equatorial Pacific, a band of ocean running from west to east above and below the equator, according to NIWA, New Zealand's National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research.
"Overall, the tropical Pacific temperatures are close to neutral, although some remnants of La Nina persist east of the (International) Date Line. A warm water tongue off the coast of Ecuador has strengthened since last month," NIWA reported in its July Island Climate Update.
But NIWA reported on July 30, "The La Nina weather pattern … has now ended. There is no indication of either La Nina or El Nino developing for the rest of the year."
The islands and atolls spread over the five archipelagos of French Polynesia are very concerned any time any meteorological officials start talking about El Nino, which is Spanish for “little boy” and refers to “Christ Child.”
An El Nino is a collection of very warm ocean water in the equatorial zone that moves east from near Australia across the tropical South Pacific, all the way to the coast of South America near Ecuador and Peru around Christmas.
And it’s not only French Polynesia that is concerned by this meteorological phenomenon because its effects can be worldwide, causing disruptions in weather patterns during the winter months in the northern hemisphere and the summer months in the southern hemisphere.
According to U.S. meteorologist and climate researcher Dilley, a recurring gravitational cycle called the "Primary Forcing Mechanism for climate", or PFM, will act like a magnet and cause the South Pacific high pressure center to be pulled out of its normal location in October and November, setting the stage for a moderate to strong El Nino to form in December — the strongest in 10 years.
Dilley says the PFM is “the trigger mechanism that controls recurring cycles of the El Nino, regional hurricane landfalls and other weather/climate cycles.”
The PFM has been “correlated with historical climate data to obtain accurate forecast models,” he said. “One such research project correlates the PFM with sea surface temperatures in the tropical South Pacific Ocean where the El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO) forms.”
By doing so, (Dilley's) GWO found a 100% correlation between the 24 PFM cycles to the occurrences of all 24 El Ninos dating back to 1914.
But while the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found that equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific Ocean had returned to near-average, “positive SST anomalies continue to increase and expand westward into the east-central Pacific.”
According to Dilley and his PFM explanation, the very warm pool of water that built up during the 15 months until March 2008 may be moving east toward South American as an El Nino with easterly trade winds due to shift direction to westerly.
The last time an El Nino's very warm pool of water existed was from April-May-June 1997 through to March-April-May 1998. During that period there were four cyclones or tropical depressions in French Polynesia, according to Météo France, the French meteorological service.
There were 20 cyclones in French Polynesia between 1971 and 2000, with 13 of them occurring during an El Nino period. The worst year was 1983 when there were five cyclones, Météo France reported in its 2004 French Polynesia Climatology Atlas.
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