Year of Contrasts
The coming year promises to be one of the great contrasts in the Pacific. At one extreme is the unprecedented U.S. military build up on Guam. We estimate the beefing up of the U.S. Territory will result in $15 billion pouring into Guam over the next 10 years. And that figure doesn’t include the inevitable economic growth in neighboring nations, particularly in their tourism sectors.
The best guesses at the moment estimate a growth in Guam’s residential population of 23 percent to about 230,000 in just a few years. That’s actually a conservative figure, as it doesn’t include a boost in the civilian population, which is all but guaranteed given the draw of greater economic opportunities.
At the other extreme is Fiji, always a major contender, but now on the economic ropes as a result of the December 2006 coup. The fact that it was the fourth coup in nearly 20 years has also put in significant damper on foreign investment and growth possibilities.
The economic picture was far different, even in the weeks leading up to the early December putsch. Major hotel developments were on track, and the nation’s all-important visitor industry was looking at a medium-term future of sustained growth.
Fiji will come out of its current tailspin; no one thinks the current grim economic conditions mean the nation is in a death spiral. But the process will be long and painful.
And given increasing globalization in our region that means much of the investment dollars that might have gone to Fiji will migrate to other areas, particularly Guam. We’ve already seen Australian and New Zealand firms beginning their own serious “look north” approach to opportunities.
What doesn’t change is the fundamentals of both Fiji and Guam – they’re both great tourism destinations; they’re both strategically located for key markets; and they’re both big enough to support sustained growth. Let’s hope Fiji quickly regains its rightful role as a regional economic power.
Sincerely,
Floyd K. Takeuchi
Publisher
